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澳门金沙娱乐官网:There are five major reasons for the withdrawal of equity funds

时间:2017/12/21 13:09:48  作者:  来源:  浏览:0  评论:0
内容摘要: There has also been some pullback in funds over the past month. Activeequity fundsaspects, December 17 within a month, about 265 active equ...

There has also been some pullback in funds over the past month. Active equity funds aspects, December 17 within a month, about 265 active equity funds, a total of 54 fund net withdrawals of less than 5% of the maximum, 188 funds the largest retracement of the period range Between 5% and 10%, accounting for 91% of the total. For the partial stock funds, the stock price retracement is the root cause of the decline in its net worth, then find the reason for the stock price retracement is crucial. Judging from the market situation, fund withdrawal there are five types of reasons.

First, simply because the price of random walk caused by the retracement

Any specific stock price, market value and net, are accurate errors. It's like Schr?dinger's cat. Cats are a combination of both dead and alive states when we are not observing cats. When we look at cats, the state of the cat collapses to the end of its life or dies the only result. It is wrong to represent the whole body with only one specific result. In the stock market did not open the time, or suspended, people's estimates of the company's stock price are vague, each different. The stock price is a diffuse state. Once the transaction starts, the company's stock price collapses to a specific value and starts to move randomly. In fact, any specific transaction price, not enough to measure the value of the company, are only from a very small point of view reflects the company's value. When we have long-term, large transaction prices, we can gradually approach the full picture of the company's value. Therefore, simply because the stock price random walk caused by the retracement is completely unpredictable, there is no need to guard against.

Second, short-term upward mood drop caused by the retracement

This occurred in the stock price after the short-term Chong Chong high. Many people in this type of retracement think it predicts that short-term bullishness will follow even long-term bullishness, hoping to further reduce costs later. Such operations have a certain probability of correct. However, the high sentiment may continue, may also be extended after the span of time to catch up with the company earnings growth. So the probability of this correct operation is greatly reduced. Moreover, after the high throw, in theory, any one below the high throw position worth recovering, when it is difficult to take back. Another case is that after the high sell-off, the price of the stock continues to rise. It is even more difficult to admit the fare increase and take back the long-term bullish stock. Most people are reluctant to recover the fare increase, from the original long-term bullish stock no longer relevant. So, we think this type of pullback is hard to predict. We recommend not having to predict, nor is it necessary to guard against it.

Third, pullback caused by the decline in performance

Some people no longer plunged into the stock price chase, but chase down the performance of the company. Significant increase in public notice performance, jiacang, announcement performance is not as expected or even decline, to lighten up. As everyone knows, the performance of the big Niu shares is not the annual growth of high season. Moreover, the performance is only the financial results of the company's operations, based on performance increases and losses, it is usually too late. This type of pullback, to distinguish between long-term decline in performance or short-term performance will fall. If it is because the company's business or the external environment has deteriorated significantly, we must try to avoid. For example, after 2010 Li Ning A number of business strategies have experienced major mistakes, and business performance has been declining continuously, and the stock has drastically retreated. If it is because of industry characteristics, short-term changes and accounting treatment caused by short-term fluctuations in performance, you can not do prediction and prevention.

Fourth, the black swan incident triggered a strong pessimistic expectations

The company's business process, there will often be some sudden Black Swan event, and bring a sharp retracement of the stock price. Some black swan events are profound and fundamental. For example, the melamine incident in 2008 greatly changed the market structure and industry rules of the dairy industry. Some black swan incident is only a small episode, such as "Zhang Sanlin" reported Erie incident, Golden Praying Mantis Zhu Xingliang Ji Jianye case incident. The stock price retreated due to the Black Swan event was almost unpredictable and precautionary in the long run, but afterwards we must keep a close watch on developments and make timely assessments. Some may not need to respond, and some need to lighten up as soon as possible (but do not just lighten up because of the stock price decline), and some may instead be a good opportunity for jiacang.

Five, the fall caused by the collapse of the bull market

This type of retracement can be likened to "under the nest, Yan finished eggs." The 2007 bull market is a complete bull market. The so-called bull market in the full sense means that the entire market can no longer find the stocks that it is willing to continue holding, not to mention the construction of warehouses. Any one bull market, will end with a feather. The retracement caused by the collapse of these bull markets is predictable with a very large probability. 2015 bull market, we think it is a "half-cut" bull market. Because even the Shanghai Composite Index at the highest point of 5178, there are many stocks in a reasonable or even reasonable valuation position. However, the situation at the time was that the valuations of SMEs were already crazy and a large number of highly leveraged financing vehicles were accumulated. A lot of private equity private placement regardless of risk, with a small hype. When the Commission to kill the matchmaking capital, the warehouse explosion makes continuous small limit hit a total loss of liquidity, public private placement had to sell blue chips to deal with a huge redemption. The pullback caused by the collapse of the bull market, all investors, whether individual investors or institutional investors, should be prepared in advance to avoid such retreat as much as possible. And, a safe investment system needs to assume that it can not escape in a bull market and still be able to obtain comparable floating profits without losing money.


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